Economics, Development and Conflict in Syria

The European Migration Crisis is resulting from political and economical instability in Syria and other countries in North Africa and the Middle East. Before diving into the economic and development aspects of the migration crisis and how European countries are being impacted, I first wanted to address economic and development aspects of the conflict going on in Syria. Given that there would not a migration crisis without the conflict that is going on in the Middle East I thought that it would be important to address that first. I will be looking at International Institutions and how they are addressing the issues that are impacting the world economy.

Migrants are fleeing their home countries as a result of conflict. The conflict in Syria is taking the lives and displacing thousands of people. The conflict is impacting individual’s access to education, energy, transportation, housing, and many other assets. The World Bank was providing support to Syria before the conflict, but has since stopped all activities in Syria. While the World Bank is no longer assisting Syria with matters of development, the international organization is providing support to Syrian refugees in Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq.  The World Bank is financially assisting countries taking in Refugees, by contributing funds towards health, education and infrastructure.

The Syrian conflict is affecting the economy and development in and outside of the country and the region of the Middle East. European countries are accepting thousands of migrants that have left their homes in Syria and other places in the Middle East too. The high levels of migration are impacting the economies in many of the European countries, and it if the high levels of migration continue the IMF and World Bank predict that the global economy much into the future.

Some countries are hurting more than others during the migration crisis. Greece for example just went through a major financial crisis and is now opening its wings to migrants fleeing Syria. International agencies have been present in European countries, including Greece, to help provide for the migrants. International organizations such as the U.N. Refugee Agency and Doctors Without Borders have increased their presence in European countries, which has helped relieve some of the economical burden.

In addition to the help of international agencies, the suspension of the Dublin Regulation protected the economies of several countries. Allowing migrants to seek refuge in a country other than their point of entry has helped to protect the future economies of the countries such as Greece, Italy and Hungary. If refugees had to seek refuge in the country of entrance into the E.U., these three countries economies would be very overwhelmed with the mere amount of people that they country would have to support.

While right now it may appear that migrants are a financial burden on the European countries, but this could change in the future. Once the majority of migrants obtain asylum and start earning money they could contribute to the economy of each European country. Jim Yong Kim, group president at the World Bank Said “If countries with aging populations can create a path for refugees and migrants to participate in the economy, everyone benefits, Most of the evidence suggests that migrants will work hard and contribute more in taxes than they consume in social services.”

 

Increasing Concerns with Providing Refuge to Syrian Migrants

After the terrorist attacks in Paris there have been conversations among the European countries about closing borders and increasing security. Many Right wing politicians are stating that the terrorist attacks can be linked with the thousands of migrants entering into European Countries.   However other politicians are remaining open and not blaming the migrants. “We should not mix the different categories of people coming to Europe. The one responsible for the attacks in Paris … is a criminal and not a refugee and not an asylum seeker,” said European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. There have been similar reactions in the United States regarding accepting Syrian migrants into the country. In 31 states politicians have expressed opposition to accepting migrants from Syria. With the Obama Administrations announcement that the U.S. will be accepting 10,000 Syrians over the next year it is essential to have all states on board. However, as ISIS if ISIS continues to carry out attacks it may be hard to convince the most right wing politicians that accepting migrants will not put the country in harms way.

Security Concerns of European Countries

The concern of security is on the minds of government leaders throughout Europe as thousands of migrants continue to enter the country with no signs of stopping in the immediate future. “The Hungarian government has taken the steps… to protect the internal European freedoms and the security of the citizens of Hungary and Europe” said Zoltan Kovacs, a Hungarian government spokesman. Hungary has chosen to close its borders with Croatia and Serbia in order to control the flow of migrants into the country. Other countries such as Germany have put up temporary border controls in order to ensure safety for civilians and order among the migrants seeking asylum.

While individual countries have taken actions to protect their citizens, the UN Security Council has also taken initiative to protect European nations from dangerous situations regarding the migration crisis. The UN Security council has authorized States to inspect vessels in the seas off the shore of Libya if there was any suspicion that the vessel was smuggling migrants across the Mediterranean Sea and into Europe. When Member States voted on the resolution they had not only the safety of their own nations in mind but also the safety and survival of the migrants. “We must not allow callous people-smugglers to profit from despair” said a representative from the United Kingdom. Providing individual security to the migrants will hopefully lessen the number of deaths that have occurred when attempting to escape war in conflict in their home countries.

As undocumented migrants are entering Europe the concern for security of the European citizens increases. Until all migrants are documented the EU does not know who is in Europe, why they are there, or how long they intend to stay. With so many migrants it is impossible to know what their real intentions for leaving their country and entering Europe are. While it may be assumed that they are fleeing conflict, there is always the possibility that some migrants may actually be affiliated with a terrorist organization such as ISIS. The possibility of that there may be terrorists’ entering as migrants into Europe is a huge national security threat. If terrorist groups have personnel posing as migrants it poses a security threat to European civilians and to migrants entering Europe living in refugee camps. Another security concern of European nations is food security. Given the large numbers of refugees in an in between phase living in refugee camps there is a high demand for food and shelter. Some European nations may be concerned that with the increasing number of refugees that they may not be able to provide enough individual means of security for the refugees and their own citizens.

While Syria is a non-nuclear state given that they signed the Treaty on The Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in 1968 and ratified it in 1969 there may be reasons to be concerned about nuclear security as a result of the civil war that is occurring. The government under Assad has received military assistance from Russia and the Assad Regime has been known to have chemical weapons during the war. Since Europe does not have any nuclear capabilities the use of deterrence as a method of security is not an option. Given that Europe is relatively close to the conflict in Syrian and definitely involved, in the sense that they are accepting migrants into their country, there is a lot of stress on their national security system to ensure the safety of their citizens and migrants.

Another factor to consider is – will security be compromised if ISIS gains access to chemical weapons? It is highly unlikely that ISIS could build a nuclear bomb given the cost, quantity of materials and time. However, the extremist group could possibly over time acquire enough radioactive materials that they could attack civilian populations.

So as the war continues and Europe continues to provide refuge for migrants escaping war there is a lot to consider in terms of security. Some countries in Europe appear to be taking a a realist perspective on security, such as how Hungary has put up fences to secure their territory as a defense mechanism and to deter migrants from entering. Other countries in Europe may take a more liberal view showing more concerned with security in terms of food security and economic security as the number of refugees entering their countries increases. However overall I think that there is a concern for national security given the extreme number of migrants that are entering Europe and the involvement of terrorist organizations in the conflict that is driving people to flee their home countries.

International Law on Migration and Asylum

Over half a million people have committed to making the journey from their home countries in the Middle East and North Africa to seek asylum in Europe.  As the war in Syria continues on it can be expected that more and more Syrians are going to be fleeing the country. While the majority of Refugees are seeking asylum in Europe, the migration crisis has become a focus of international law. Issues have arisen in response to the influx of refugees that international law can best address, such as country quotas for accepting refugees.

Recently the EU approved a plan that will fairly distribute 120,000 refugees among countries in Europe. While many countries such as Greece and Germany are over their designated quota, there are other countries that are under quota that are going to be expected to open their borders to more refugees. All countries will be accountable for providing asylum to refugees, despite some countries opposition to the plan. However, each country’s quota is different because the EU established the quotas based on the size of the countries economy and population.

There are other International actors such as the United Nations, that have addressed the legal issues associated with the large quantity of refugees seeking asylum in European nations. There is international law that protects refugees seeking asylum. The 1951 Refugee Convention held in Geneva by the United Nations defines who a refugee is and what countries legal obligations are in providing asylum for the refugees. Refugees continue to be protected by the international law outlined during the UN convention in 1951.

In order to ensure that the nations of the European Union are staying true to international law protecting refugees, the EU adopted the Common European Asylum System in 1999. According to international law, specifically through the Dublin Regulation, if a refugee is seeking asylum in the EU they must be registered through the country at which they enter the EU. While this legislation may serve as effective under ordinary circumstances, it is flawed when dealing with large quantities of refugees. Currently the EU has waived the requirement of applying for asylum in the first country of entrance, allowing refugees to apply for asylum in other countries in the EU. The primary reason for this is that many refugees are crossing the Mediterranean Sea to enter into Europe; therefore the EU nations that border the Mediterranean Sea have been the primary point of entry and would have been required to provide asylum for all of the migrants if the international law had not been annulled.

As more and more refugees are making it to landlocked countries in Europe it is becoming apparent that the EU’s decision to waive the international law that requires refugees to apply for asylum in the country of entrance has benefited both the refugees and the european countries.  Distributing the refugees using the quota system has removed some of the economic burden from countries that were over quota and has provided refugees with a destination where they will be able to apply for asylum.  It is important to remember that while the majority of refugees are going to Europe seeking asylum, the refugee crisis is a global issue and requires the attention of international law and international assistance.

Where the U.S. Candidates stand on the Migration Crisis

After listening to the democratic debate last night I thought it would be interesting to look into where the different candidates stand on the migration crisis.  In early September the candidates had interviews with MSNBC during which they spoke about the viewpoints of the crisis, whether they think it is a crisis, if they think the U.S. should intervene,etc.

Democratic candidate Martin O’Malley concerns regarding the crisis were made clear when he started a petition in support of the U.S. accepting at least 65,000 refugees in 2016.  Other democratic canditates including Clinton and Sanders agree that the United States should do their part to help during the crisis.  Hilary stated “We should do our part, as should the Europeans; but this is a broader, global crisis”, suggesting that the crisis is not a problem solvable by one country, that it will take the cooperation of many countries to provide relief for the Syrian refugees.  Bernie Sanders takes a similar standpoint as Clinton, he stated “the world has got to respond, the United States should be a part of that response.”.  He emphasized that the U.S. should play a role in responding to the crisis but he also acknowledged the importance of other Middle Eastern countries role in providing relief for Syrian refugees.

Republican candidate Donald Trump has a different stand on how much the U.S. should get involved in the migration crisis.  He recognizes that the the migration crisis is a problem but he states that “Europe is handling it”.  He emphasizes that the U.S. has many issues of its own that need to be addressed, “there’s a huge problem, and we should help as much as possible, but we do have to fix our own country.”.  Other republican candidates such as Ben Carson have stated the increasing the number of refugees that the United States accepts would be a safety hazard for our country.

The U.S. candidates have both many similar and yet many differing stand points on the migration crisis.  No matter what their stance all candidates must and have acknowledged that 7 million Syrians have been displaced by the war since 2011and from this have chosen to defend their claim for how the U.S. should respond.

Theories Explaining the Syrian Civil War & European Reactions to the Refugee Crisis

When attempting to understand the theory behind the European Migration Crisis it is essential to look at how the different actors in the crisis interact, and how their perceptions of war and peace are similar and how they are different. Take a second to recognize that a Syrian may support different theoretical explanations about the Syrian Civil war and the Migration Crises than a European or even an American.

Before attempting to explain the theory behind the European Migration Crisis I think that it is important to first understand the much larger issue at hand, the Syrian War. The Civil War in Syria has been going on now for several years and there is not an end in site. The power struggle among the Islamic State (IS), President Assad, and the rebel forces is bloody and unforgiving. Taking a realist perspective, the war is going to be ongoing until one of the fighting powers trumps the reset. According to realist theory each power is fighting to gain complete power and control of the government and land of Syria. Each party has ones own self-interest at mind and will do what it takes to achieve power. The likelihood that the different forces will reconcile and cooperate with each other is very unlikely; the state of nature is the state of war because without any institutions each party will act in their own self-interest and will go to war to achieve such self-interest.

Now taking a turn to look at the theory surrounding the migration crisis and the viewpoints of the countries that are part of the European Union. Decisions made by the EU exemplify motifs of liberal theory.   Nations built around the conception of liberal theory hold common beliefs such as people are equal under law, people should be guaranteed civil liberties, and the power of the legislature is invested in the people. The states of the European Union exemplify these elements of liberal theory among not only their citizens but asylum seekers as well. As the EU attempts to distribute the refugees equally amongst countries it shows that they are trying to share the love and make sure that one country is not burdened more than another. Furthermore the reactions of most of the countries in the EU exemplify liberal theory. The countries are taking in refugees for no reason but to help. Their actions are for absolute interest; they are giving the refugees a home as result of war in their previous home. While realists act only in self-interest the EU appears to cooperate with each other and with other nations and help with global issues such as the refugee crisis.

While it may be assumed that all countries part of the EU would have the same reaction to the civil war and the flood of migrants entering the country, that is not the case. Countries including Hungary and the Czech Republic have expressed opposition to accepting thousands of migrants into their country.   It appears as though these two nations relate more closely with the theory of neoliberalism. Like realist nations they have their self-interest at hand; they do not want to welcome thousands of migrants into their countries since it would not benefit them. It may be assumed that these countries would have greater desire to cooperate with the EU if accepting migrants had some sort of benefit for them in the long run.

Seeking Refuge in Europe

As a result of the current state of conflict in their countries people from Syria, Afghanistan, and other Middle Eastern and North African countries are seeking refuge in European nations. Hundreds of thousands migrants are making the long journey across the Mediterranean Sea to escape war and in hopes of a better life for themselves and their families. The journey that these migrants are making is neither an easy one nor a safe one. Journalists have reported may stories of disasters that are occurring as migrants attempt to traverse the rough sea in rubber rafts, putting lives in danger, in hopes that they can make it to safety. A tragic report about the drowning of a young Syrian boy made national news and brought to light the severity of the migration crisis.

The difficulties do not end for the migrants once they arrive in Europe. With such a high influx of migrants the European countries are feeling overwhelmed in regards to their space and resources. Countries are beginning to reach capacity for number of migrants that they can support. Overwhelmed with the quantity of people entering their countries, governments are beginning to shut down railways and roads, preventing more people from entering and gaining asylum.

At this time the European commission is attempting to fairly distribute migrants throughout Europe in efforts to provide some nations with relief. Countries including Greece, Italy and Germany have offered asylum to more than their share of migrants. The EU is attempting to gain control of the situation and redistribute refugees so that all countries are equally taking responsibility. Some countries are reluctant to provide asylum to more migrants however with more and more migrants entering Europe there may be no choice but to provide refuge for them.

As migrants continue to enter the EU it will be interesting to see future responses of the European countries to the floods of people looking for refuge. Will the EU be successful in redistributing migrants equally across the European nations? How will attitudes towards migrants change as weeks go by and more people continue to seek refuge?